Buying Points Sports Betting

As you would have guessed, buying points has to do with betting on the point spread, in this case, if the odds makers set a line for a football game at -7.5, people placing bets are allowed to buy up to half a point, and if they do, the line will move from -7.5 to -7.0, so if the team you pick should win by seven points, the game ends in a push, instead of a loss if you had left the line at -7.5. But if you want to «buy points» (for instance, you want 20 points and not 15), you can accomplish this by «buying» points. Let’s consider the following line on Washington where you are buying five points: Washington, +20, -275. So, in this case, if Washington loses by less than 20 points, you would win your bet. Buy points: Bettors can buy points, using alternate point spreads and game totals, to gain a more favorable line. If a spread is set at +2.5 points a player can buy one point to move the line up.

  1. Betting Points Explained
  2. What Does Buying Points Mean In Sports Betting

Introduction

This page shows the fair price to buy or sell up to 1.5 points in the NFL, off of both the spread and the total. One practical use for this is when the sports book lets you change the point by up to 1.5 points. Of course, you'll have to lay more if buying points, and get more if selling them. Pinnacle sports book is a good example. You need to log in to do it, but they have a sliding toolbar for the adjusted prices when buying and selling up to 1.5 points. Another practical application is deciding what is the better of two lines. For example, +3 at even money, or +3.5 and -120.

The following table shows the fair price you should have to pay for buying and selling up to 1.5 points according to the fair point spread. For example, if a bet is fair at -10 even money, then it would also be fair at -11.5 at +122, -11 at +116, -10.5 at +109, -9.5 at -109, -9 at -111, and -8.5 at -113. It also answers the question posed above, that +3 even money is an equally good bet as +3.5 at -120. It also shows that it is worth paying 10 points for a half point of a point spread off or onto a spread of 7 (for example going from -7.5 to -7, -7 to -6.5, +6.5 to +7, and +7 to +7.5). So if you are going to lay 110 off of a 7 point spread anyway, it is slightly better to lay 120 for the half point, something many sports books allow.

Buying and Selling Points off of the Spread

SpreadSell 1.5Sell 1.0Sell 0.5Buy 0.5Buy 1.0Buy 1.5
-14117114111-111-116-121
-13.5127123112-105-109-111
-13129117105-105-106-108
-12.5122109105-102-103-110
-12111106102-102-108-114
-11.5108103102-106-112-123
-11109108106-106-116-125
-10.5114112106-109-118-121
-10122116109-109-111-113
-9.5126118109-102-104-108
-9120111102-102-106-111
-8.5113104102-104-109-122
-8108106104-104-116-128
-7.5111109104-111-123-133
-7121116111-111-119-127
-6.5129123111-107-114-118
-6131120107-107-110-113
-5.5128114107-103-106-114
-5117110103-103-110-117
-4.5114106103-107-114-141
-4113110107-107-131-154
-3.5118114107-122-144-151
-3137129120-120-125-130
-2.5156144122-104-108-114
-2150127104-104-109-114
-1.5133108104-105-109-110
-1113109105-105-105-105
0110105EVEV-105-110
1105105105-105-109-113
1.5110109105-104-108-133
2114109104-104-127-150
2.5114108104-122-144-156
3130125120-120-129-137
3.5151144122-107-114-118
4154131107-107-110-113
4.5141114107-103-106-114
5117110103-103-110-117
5.5114106103-107-114-128
6113110107-107-120-131
6.5118114107-111-123-129
7127119111-111-116-121
7.5133123111-104-109-111
8128116104-104-106-108
8.5122109104-102-104-113
9111106102-102-111-120
9.5108104102-109-118-126
10113111109-109-116-122
10.5121118109-106-112-114
11125116106-106-108-109
11.5123112106-102-103-108
12114108102-102-106-111
12.5110103102-105-109-122
13108106105-105-117-129
13.5111109105-112-123-127
14121116111-111-114-117

The next table is for buying and selling points off of the total.

Buying and Selling Points off of the Total

TotalSell 1.5Sell 1.0Sell 0.5Buy 0.5Buy 1.0Buy 1.5
33113111108-108-116-123
33.5120117108-107-114-120
34125116107-107-112-116
34.5124114107-104-109-114
35119112104-104-109-113
35.5117109104-104-108-121
36113109104-104-116-127
36.5113108104-111-122-130
37119115110-110-117-124
37.5127122111-106-112-116
38129118106-106-110-113
38.5125112106-103-107-114
39116110103-103-110-116
39.5113107103-106-112-122
40113110106-106-115-124
40.5116112106-108-117-121
41121115108-108-112-115
41.5125117108-103-107-114
42121112103-103-110-117
42.5116107103-107-113-122
43113110106-106-115-123
43.5117113107-108-115-125
44122115107-107-116-124
44.5124115108-108-115-120
45124116107-107-112-116
45.5125115108-104-108-117
46120112104-104-113-121
46.5116108104-108-117-125
47117112108-108-115-122
47.5122117108-106-113-120
48124116106-106-113-119
48.5123113106-106-112-118
49119113106-106-112-118
49.5119112106-106-111-124
50118112106-106-117-128
50.5118111106-111-122-133
51123117110-110-120-129
51.5129122111-108-117-122
52131120108-108-113-118

2010 Super Bowl Example

Let's take a look at an example from the Pinnacle Sports adjusted lines on the 2010 Super Bowl. The default lines are Saints +5.5 -106, and Colts -5.5 -102. The following table shows the lines on the Saints. The first column shows the point spreads available. The second column shows the prices Pinnacle offers at each spread. The third column shows the fair line. These can be found from my tables, and then subtracting 2. The reason for subtracting 2 is the Saints are slightly favored at +5.5. The fourth column shows the expected value. Note that none of the adjusted lines are ever a better value than betting the default line of +5.5.

Pinnacle Sports Lines on Saints

SpreadPinnacle
Line
Fair
Line
Expected
Value
+7-144-130-4.16%
+6.5-124-116-2.93%
+6-116-109-2.86%
+5.5-106-102-1.87%
+5-103101-1.92%
+4.5100104-1.91%
+4107112-2.13%

The next table is much the same, but for the Colts. In this case I added 2 points to the fair lines, because the Colts are slight underdogs against a 5.5 spread. This table shows that it is a better value to sell the 1.5 points, and lay 7 points at +128, as opposed to lay 5.5 points at -106. All bets still have a negative expected value. However, if your handicapping skills led you to bet the Colts anyway at -5.5 -102, you would be better off betting them at -7 +128.

Pinnacle Sports Lines on Colts

SpreadPinnacle
Line
Fair
Line
Expected
Value
-7128130-0.96%
-6.5110116-2.84%
-6103109-2.90%
-5.5-102102-1.96%
-5-110-101-4.09%
-4.5-114-104-4.35%
-4-122-112-4.07%

I have looked at the Pinnacle lines on some other NFL games besides the Super Bowl. To make a general statement, I think Pinnacle does a solid job setting their alternative point spreads. Sometimes I perceive a better value than the default point spread selling 1.5 points, but never enough to overcome the juice. My advice is if you are going to bet something on Pinnacle anyway, check to see if you get a better value selling 1.5 points.

Methodology

The above tables were based on NFL seasons from 1983 through 2009. To get at a fair probability of winning buying or selling points off of a given spread or total, I looked at all games within 3 points of the spread or total in question, to see how often the final score would have been affected by buying or selling points.

Sports

Betting Points Explained

Disclaimer

Ultimately football is played with real people, and not statistics. Compared to other sports, the NFL has relatively few games per year, leading to a small-sample-size problem. So any advice on football betting from anyone, including me, should be taken with a grain of salt.

One might also argue that the magnitude of the total should be taken under consideration. I would tend to disagree, but other sports bettors I respect maintain that the effect of buying and selling points is more significant in a game with a low total. I did not take that into consideration.


Points

What Does Buying Points Mean In Sports Betting

Written by: Michael Shackleford